Astro Teller, CEO X, Alphabet’s “moon photo factory.” where the company incubates the near inconceivable, we shared a look at what makes us successful and detailed the company’s “fail fast” mantra during Monday’s TechCrunch Disrupt 2025 conference.
Well-known firms that began as moonshots from the X moonshot factory include Waymo and Wing.
Teller noted that X has a “2% hit rate,” which suggests most things the company tries fail, and that is okay.
He said that X defines a moonshot as having three specific elements. First, it must try to solve a huge problem in the world. Second, there should be some product or service that, nonetheless unlikely, will make the problem go away. Finally, there should be a breakthrough technology that may provide a glimmer of hope to resolve this huge, real problem.
“If you were working at “I don’t need you to make it work. I need you to know whether this really is a once-in-a-generation opportunity or not, and it’s okay if the answer is no.”
Teller further noted that if someone proposes a moonshot, and it sounds reasonable, the company is not interested because by definition it would not be a moonshot. That does not imply it’s a bad idea; It’s just not what X is looking for.
“If you propose something and it sounds pretty crazy, which has the three elements that I just described, and it’s a hypothesis that can be tested, for a small amount of money we can find out something about whether it’s crazier than we thought or a little less crazier than we thought,” Teller said. “If it’s a little less crazy than we thought, great, let’s give him a high-five, put a bullet in his head and move on. And if it’s a little less crazy than we thought, great, here’s some more money. Find another opportunity to kill it and do it again.”
Teller emphasized that to take lunar photos, it’s worthwhile to be as daring as you are humble.
“Unless you’re really adventurous, you’re not going to go on these really incredible journeys,” he said. “But if you have less than truly high humility, you will go brilliantly far on this incredible journey.”
X starts greater than 100 projects a 12 months, and although 2% of them end five or six years later, 44% of all the money the company spends goes on things that end in success and are “outrageously good,” Teller said. He says this is because X “kills all the bad ideas quite early in the process.”
Teller stated that humans could be taught to innovate, noting that every person was creative as a child, but that we ultimately unlearn things that are useful and maybe even vital for radical innovation. But he says you will discover these items again by creating an environment where you do not feel silly for finding them.